據(jù)油田技術(shù)2月24日消息稱，Rystad Energy的研究顯示，撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)未開發(fā)的天然氣供應(yīng)將在這十年得到釋放，由于大量未開發(fā)的深水資源，其產(chǎn)量將從2021年的130萬桶/天增加到2030年的270萬桶/天，增幅超過一倍。

盡管迄今為止，深水開發(fā)在該地區(qū)的液體產(chǎn)量中發(fā)揮著關(guān)鍵作用，平均約占年產(chǎn)量的50%，但此類油田的天然氣產(chǎn)量卻很少。然而，隨著未來幾年深海天然氣儲(chǔ)量的激增，這種情況有望改變。深水開發(fā)項(xiàng)目的產(chǎn)量將從 2021 年的 12萬桶油當(dāng)量/天（占包括陸架和陸地產(chǎn)量在內(nèi)的總產(chǎn)量的 9%）猛增至100萬桶/天，占總產(chǎn)量的 38%。

隨著全球?qū)μ烊粴獾男枨蟪掷m(xù)上升，以及進(jìn)口國(guó)面臨供應(yīng)難題，該地區(qū)的生產(chǎn)前景是光明的。深水油氣產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將在21世紀(jì)30年代進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)，到2035年，天然氣產(chǎn)量將在五年內(nèi)翻倍，達(dá)到210萬桶/天。根據(jù)估計(jì)的可采儲(chǔ)量、開發(fā)時(shí)間表和計(jì)劃，到2035年，陸架和陸地儲(chǔ)量的天然氣將增加，占該地區(qū)預(yù)計(jì)的400萬桶/天天然氣總產(chǎn)量的46%。

由于蓬勃發(fā)展的生產(chǎn)前景，預(yù)計(jì)綠地投資也將飆升。2021年，該地區(qū)天然氣和液體新油田的資本支出總額為120億美元，其中80億美元用于深水開發(fā)。到 2030 年，綠地投資總額將飆升至近 400 億美元，其中 240 億美元將用于深水項(xiàng)目。

Rystad Energy 的高級(jí)上游分析師 Siva Prasad 說：“未來幾年，撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)的天然氣產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將大幅增加，特別是天然氣產(chǎn)量將大幅增加。盡管陸上已經(jīng)有了顯著的發(fā)現(xiàn)，但深水海上資源的開發(fā)將為該地區(qū)帶來一個(gè)快速增長(zhǎng)的時(shí)期?！?/p>

撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)的天然氣產(chǎn)量一直處于歷史最低水平，但由于莫桑比克、南非和毛里塔尼亞等國(guó)存在大量未開發(fā)的深水油田，這一狀況有望改變。

目前撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)的潛在可采儲(chǔ)量中，約60%位于深水區(qū)，其中近60%為天然氣。莫桑比克擁有該地區(qū)52%的可采天然氣資源，其次是塞內(nèi)加爾-毛里塔尼亞海域，合計(jì)20%，坦桑尼亞約12%。尼日利亞還擁有大量可采天然氣儲(chǔ)量，這將有助于預(yù)期產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)。

另一方面，撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)的石油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將在20多年來首次降至400萬桶/天以下，但將在2028年恢復(fù)，并在2020年恢復(fù)到440萬桶/天左右的水平。液體產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)也將在21世紀(jì)30年代增長(zhǎng)，到2035年的總產(chǎn)量約為500萬桶/天。

該地區(qū)可開采的深水資源中，液體資源約占40%，其中尼日利亞占33%，安哥拉占31%。加納和莫桑比克是另外兩個(gè)擁有大量未開發(fā)資源的國(guó)家，分別占該地區(qū)深水液體儲(chǔ)量的8%和7%。

朱佳妮 摘譯自 油田技術(shù)

原文如下：

Rystad Energy: gas output from Sub-Saharan Africa set to double by 2030

Untapped natural gas supplies in Sub-Saharan Africa are set to be unleashed this decade, with output more than doubling from 1.3 million boe/d in 2021 to 2.7 million boe/d in 2030 due to vast undeveloped deepwater resources, Rystad Energy research shows.

While deepwater developments have played a crucial role in the region’s liquids output to date, averaging about 50% of annual production, gas output from such fields has been minimal. That is expected to change, however, as gas from deepwater reserves will surge in the coming years. Production from deepwater developments will skyrocket from 120 000 boe/d in 2021, 9% of total output including shelf and land production, to 1 million boe/d accounting for 38% of total output.

As global demand for gas continues to rise and importing countries suffer supply headaches, the production outlook for the region is promising. Deepwater production is projected to grow further in the 2030s, with gas output more than doubling in five years to 2.1 million boe/d by 2035. Gas from shelf and land reserves will increase by 2035 and will contribute about 46% of the expected 4 million boe/d of total gas output from the region, based on estimated recoverable reserves, development timelines and plans.

As a result of the booming production outlook, greenfield investments are also projected to soar. Gas and liquids greenfield CAPEX in the region totalled US$12 billion in 2021, with US$8 billion spent on deepwater developments. By 2030, total greenfield investments will surge to almost US$40 billion, of which US$24 billion will go on deepwater projects.

“Production in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, with natural gas output in particular set to see a boom in output. Although there have been notable onshore finds, the development of deepwater offshore resources is going to usher in a period of rapid growth for the region,” says Siva Prasad, senior upstream analyst with Rystad Energy.

Natural gas production in Sub-Saharan Africa has been historically low, but that looks set to change due to significant undeveloped deepwater finds in countries including Mozambique, South Africa and Mauritania.

Of the current potential recoverable reserves across Sub-Saharan Africa, about 60% lie in deepwater regions, of which close to 60% is gas. Mozambique dominates with 52% of the total recoverable gas resources in the area, followed by the Senegal–Mauritania maritime region with a combined 20% and Tanzania with about 12%. Nigeria also holds significant recoverable reserves of gas that will contribute to the expected output hike.

On the flip side, Sub-Saharan African liquids production is expected to drop below 4 million bpd for the first time in more than 20 years but will recover by 2028 and return to 2020 levels of around 4.4 million bpd by the end of the decade. Liquids output is projected to grow in the 2030s, too, with total production of approximately 5 million bpd in 2035.

about 40% of the total recoverable deepwater resources in the region are liquids, of which Nigeria accounts for 33% and Angola has 31%. Ghana and Mozambique are two other countries with significant untapped resources, amounting to 8% and 7%, respectively, of the region’s deepwater liquids reserves.