? 主要食品和能源大宗商品的全球供應(yīng)正在開(kāi)始影響全球經(jīng)濟(jì)。

? 不斷上升的核心通脹和強(qiáng)硬的央行政策可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步影響全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。  

? 全球所有大宗商品價(jià)格指數(shù)自2020年第二季度疫情期間的低點(diǎn)以來(lái)迄今已增長(zhǎng)一倍多。  

據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)4月14日?qǐng)?bào)道，企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者已經(jīng)感受到從原油到谷物和金屬等各種大宗商品價(jià)格上漲的影響。今年以來(lái)，由于地緣政治沖突而引發(fā)的大宗商品市場(chǎng)劇烈波動(dòng)，使現(xiàn)實(shí)世界的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)前景變得復(fù)雜，并推高了全球消費(fèi)者的食品和能源價(jià)格。包括原油、天然氣、小麥、大豆、工業(yè)原料和貴金屬在內(nèi)的大宗商品價(jià)格飆升，已經(jīng)沖擊了全球的消費(fèi)價(jià)格，通脹率達(dá)到40年來(lái)的高點(diǎn)。這促使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)開(kāi)始加息以抑制通脹，預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)未來(lái)幾個(gè)月還會(huì)有更多次加息。

大宗商品庫(kù)存普遍處于極低水平

在全球范圍內(nèi)，各種大宗商品的供應(yīng)都低于需求。

摩根大通大宗商品策略師特蕾西·艾倫告訴《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》記者瑞安·德澤貝爾：“能源、農(nóng)產(chǎn)品和金屬的庫(kù)存普遍處于極低水平?！蹦Ω笸A(yù)計(jì)，大宗商品價(jià)格將一直保持高位，直到明年年底。  

如果地緣政治沖突擾亂能源供應(yīng)大國(guó)能源產(chǎn)品的實(shí)質(zhì)性出口，那么大宗商品供應(yīng)可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步下降。

聯(lián)合國(guó)糧農(nóng)組織指出，戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)導(dǎo)致全球食品價(jià)格創(chuàng)歷史新高。聯(lián)合國(guó)糧農(nóng)組織稱，3月份糧農(nóng)組織食品價(jià)格指數(shù)平均為159.3點(diǎn)，比2月份上漲12.6%，此前已達(dá)到1990年該組織全面啟動(dòng)以來(lái)的最高水平。糧農(nóng)組織食品價(jià)格指數(shù)跟蹤一攬子常見(jiàn)交易食品價(jià)格的月度變化。3月份的物價(jià)比去年3月份上漲33.6%。

丹麥?zhǔn)氥y行大宗商品策略主管奧利·漢森日前在公司每周大宗商品市場(chǎng)更新報(bào)告中表示，“今年繼續(xù)中斷供應(yīng)的前景，加上美國(guó)和南美的天氣擔(dān)憂，以及提到的燃料和化肥價(jià)格上漲，可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致又一年的全球供應(yīng)緊張?！?/p>

漢森指出，今年第一季度，全球大宗商品行業(yè)出現(xiàn)了有史以來(lái)最好的季度。  

他說(shuō)：“在第一季度，戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)和制裁加劇了本已強(qiáng)勁的行業(yè)表現(xiàn)，導(dǎo)致彭博商品現(xiàn)貨指數(shù)上漲24%，這是人們記憶中最好的一個(gè)季度，因此幾乎超過(guò)去年26.5%的漲幅，那是自2000年以來(lái)最好的年度表現(xiàn) ?！?/p>

投機(jī)商退出油氣市場(chǎng) 

漢森說(shuō)：“地緣政治沖突和日益嚴(yán)厲的制裁已經(jīng)切斷多種供應(yīng)渠道，從原油和天然氣到主要工業(yè)金屬，以及小麥、玉米和食用油等糧食商品?！?/p>

大宗商品市場(chǎng)的動(dòng)蕩，極端的波動(dòng)，以及期貨交易所大幅提高的初始利潤(rùn)率，導(dǎo)致石油期貨投機(jī)商大批撤離。紙貨石油市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性下降加劇了波動(dòng)性，以至于一些交易商在3月份表示，“這個(gè)市場(chǎng)是不可交易的。”

高利潤(rùn)要求提高了大宗商品交易公司的流動(dòng)性需求，這些公司在世界各地進(jìn)行現(xiàn)貨石油交易。 通過(guò)商品期貨合約，交易機(jī)構(gòu)可以對(duì)沖風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。如果沒(méi)有大宗商品衍生品，許多交易商將無(wú)法移動(dòng)石油的實(shí)物量。

托克公司首席財(cái)務(wù)官克里斯托夫·薩爾蒙3月曾在英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》大宗商品全球峰會(huì)上表示，“我們需要一個(gè)功能完備的大宗商品期貨市場(chǎng)，而我們觀察到的是未平倉(cāng)頭寸的減少。假設(shè)形勢(shì)沒(méi)有正?；?，這種效率低下的期貨市場(chǎng)將會(huì)變成現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)?！?nbsp;

摩根大通商業(yè)銀行總經(jīng)理兼首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家吉姆·格拉斯曼本周表示，自2020年第二季度全球所有大宗商品價(jià)格指數(shù)創(chuàng)下疫情低點(diǎn)以來(lái)，如今已上漲逾一倍，比上一個(gè)商業(yè)周期的平均水平高出62%。

據(jù)這位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說(shuō)，即使達(dá)成和平協(xié)議，市場(chǎng)可能也會(huì)在價(jià)格中計(jì)入石油、小麥、玉米、鎳和鈀等大宗商品的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

格拉斯曼指出：“期貨市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)油價(jià)將在未來(lái)幾年保持高位。消費(fèi)者已經(jīng)感受到能源價(jià)格高企帶來(lái)的壓力，因?yàn)橛蛢r(jià)飆升幾乎立即導(dǎo)致加油站燃料價(jià)格上漲。” 

格拉斯曼說(shuō)：“每桶原油價(jià)格每上漲42美元，普通家庭每年將在汽油上多花費(fèi)500美元?！?nbsp; 

依賴原材料和運(yùn)輸?shù)钠髽I(yè)可能會(huì)在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月發(fā)現(xiàn)挑戰(zhàn)。這位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家指出，如果大宗商品和石油價(jià)格的上漲開(kāi)始波及核心通脹，這可能迫使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)計(jì)劃進(jìn)一步上調(diào)利率，從而給經(jīng)濟(jì)降溫。

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Commodity Chaos Is Threatening The Global Economy

·     Global supply of key food and energy commodities is starting to impact the global economy. 

·     Rising core inflation and hawkish Central Bank policy could further impact economic growth.

·     The Global Price Index of All Commodities has more than doubled since its pandemic low in Q2 2020.

·     

Businesses and consumers are already feeling the impact of the rally in commodity prices of everything from crude oil to grains and metals. The year’s highly volatile commodity markets, are complicating real-world economic growth prospects and are raising food and energy prices for consumers globally. The surge in commodities, including crude oil, natural gas, wheat, soybeans, and industrial and precious metals, have already hit consumer prices globally, with inflation at a 40-year high. This has prompted the Fed to start raising interest rates to tame inflation, with more rate hikes expected in the coming months.  

Commodity Inventories “Critically Low” 

Globally, the supply of commodities of all kinds is lower than the demand. 

“Inventories across energy, agricultural and metals are critically low everywhere,” Tracey Allen, commodities strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co, told Ryan Dezember of The Wall Street Journal. JPMorgan sees commodity prices staying elevated through the end of next year.  

The supply of commodities could head even lower as it is one of the world’s top exporters of corn, wheat, and vegetable oils. Reduced exports of Ukrainian agricultural commodities could raise food insecurity in many countries in South Asia, Western Asia, and Africa, IHS Markit said last month. 

Respectively, the UN said last week when it noted that the war resulted in a fresh all-time high in global food prices. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 159.3 points in March, up 12.6 percent from February, when it had already reached its highest level since its inception in 1990, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said. The FAO Food Price Index tracks monthly changes in the prices of a basket of commonly traded food commodities. Last month’s prices were 33.6 percent higher overall compared to March last year. 

“The prospect of continued supply disruptions this year together with US and South American weather concerns as well as the mentioned rise in the cost of fuel and fertilizers will likely lead to another year of tightening supply,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a weekly commodity market update last week. 

The commodities sector overall saw the best quarter ever in Q1 2022, Hansen noted. 

“During the first quarter, war and sanctions turbocharged an already strong performing sector, resulting in the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index registering a 24% gain, its best quarter in living memory, thereby almost eclipsing the 2021 gain of 26.5%, the best annual performance since 2000,” he said. 

Speculators Pull Out Of Oil & Gas Markets 

“The war and increasingly tough sanctions have uprooted multiple supply channels from crude oil and gas to key industrial metals as well as food commodities such as wheat, corn, and edible oils,” Hansen says. 

The market turmoil in commodities, the extreme volatility, and the futures exchanges raising initial margins significantly. The lower liquidity in the paper oil market exacerbated the volatility to the point of some traders saying in March that “the market is untradeable.” 

The high margin requirements raised the liquidity needs of commodity trading firms, which trade physical barrels around the world. Via futures contracts in commodities, trading houses hedge against risks. Without commodity derivatives, many traders would not be able to move physical volumes of oil.   

“We need a fully-functioning commodities futures market and what we’ve observed is a decrease in open interest. Assuming the situation does not normalise, there will be consequences of this inefficient futures market into physical,” Christophe Salmon, CFO at Trafigura, said at the FT Commodities Global Summit last month.

The Global Price Index of All Commodities has more than doubled since its pandemic low in Q2 2020, pushing 62 percent higher than its average during the last business cycle, Jim Glassman, Managing Director and Head Economist for Commercial Banking at JPMorgan, said this week.

Even if peace is reached, markets are likely to price in political risks for commodities such as oil, wheat, corn, nickel, and palladium, according to the economist.  

“Futures markets anticipate oil prices to remain elevated for years,” Glassman noted. 

Consumers are already feeling the pinch from high energy prices because oil price spikes almost immediately lead to higher prices at the pump.

“For every $42 rise in the price of a barrel of crude oil, the average household will spend an extra $500 annually on gasoline,” JP Morgan’s Glassman says. 

Businesses dependent on raw materials and transportation could find the coming months challenging. If the rising cost of commodities and oil starts to spill over into core inflation, this could compel the Fed to plan more interest rate hikes, which could cool the economy, the economist noted.