據(jù)油氣新聞網(wǎng)7月7日?qǐng)?bào)道，根據(jù)國(guó)際可再生能源機(jī)構(gòu)（IRENA）在其新的報(bào)告系列中表示，為了使氫貿(mào)易具有成本效益，生產(chǎn)和交易綠色氫的成本必須低于國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)，以抵消更高的運(yùn)輸成本。

氫貿(mào)易可以促進(jìn)更多樣化和更有彈性的能源系統(tǒng)，使各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)脫碳，造福于生產(chǎn)者和消費(fèi)者。

“全球氫貿(mào)易以滿足1.5℃的氣候目標(biāo)”表明未來(lái)的氫貿(mào)易可能具有重大意義。隨著項(xiàng)目規(guī)模的進(jìn)展和技術(shù)的成熟，貿(mào)易使人們能夠開(kāi)發(fā)出廉價(jià)的氫氣。據(jù)報(bào)告稱，全球四分之一的綠色氫需求可以通過(guò)管道和船舶進(jìn)行國(guó)際貿(mào)易來(lái)滿足。

隨著可再生能源成本的下降和全球氫潛力超過(guò)全球能源需求的20倍，到2050年，全球四分之三的氫仍將在當(dāng)?shù)厣a(chǎn)和使用。

這與當(dāng)今石油市場(chǎng)的大宗國(guó)際交易相比是一個(gè)重大變化，但與天然氣市場(chǎng)的三分之一是跨境交易類似。Irena表示，與今天的石油和天然氣市場(chǎng)相比，氫市場(chǎng)和貿(mào)易路線可能更加多樣化、地區(qū)性，利潤(rùn)也不那么豐厚。

Irena總干事Francesco La Camera表示，獲得充足的可再生能源不足以贏得氫競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，發(fā)展氫貿(mào)易也是必要的。

他指出，誠(chéng)然，氫貿(mào)易可以為各國(guó)從脫碳工業(yè)到供應(yīng)多樣化和提高能源安全提供多種機(jī)會(huì)。今天的能源進(jìn)口國(guó)也可以成為未來(lái)的出口國(guó)。

La Camera補(bǔ)充道，但政府必須做出重大努力，將貿(mào)易愿望變成現(xiàn)實(shí)。創(chuàng)新、政策支持和擴(kuò)大規(guī)?？梢詭?lái)必要的成本降低，并創(chuàng)造一個(gè)全球氫市場(chǎng)。能否實(shí)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易潛力將在很大程度上取決于各國(guó)的政策和投資重點(diǎn)，以及他們自己能源系統(tǒng)脫碳的能力。

Irena的《世界能源轉(zhuǎn)型展望》認(rèn)為，到2050年，氫將覆蓋全球12%的能源需求，減少10%的二氧化碳排放。

然而，只有在生產(chǎn)氫氣所需的電力與能源系統(tǒng)的電氣化并舉的情況下，氫氣才能成為一個(gè)可行的氣候解決方案，這使得更大程度上利用可再生能源成為轉(zhuǎn)型的核心。如果成本下降，到2050年，每公斤1美元以下的綠色氫將滿足世界能源需求的10倍。

據(jù)新的報(bào)告顯示，到2050年，一半的氫將通過(guò)主要現(xiàn)有的、重新利用的天然氣管道進(jìn)行交易，這將大大降低運(yùn)輸成本。到2050年，成本約為每1000公里每公斤0.10美元，這將是3000公里以下最具成本效益的選擇。

相比之下，通過(guò)新管道的運(yùn)輸成本將是原來(lái)的兩倍。這仍低于以綠色氨的形式運(yùn)輸超過(guò)3000公里-5000公里，其占全球氫貿(mào)易的一半。根據(jù)分析，氨運(yùn)輸將成為洲際氫貿(mào)易的主導(dǎo)形式。

據(jù)Irena稱，未來(lái)通過(guò)管道進(jìn)行的貿(mào)易將集中在兩個(gè)區(qū)域市場(chǎng)，分別是占全球85%的歐洲和占全球15%的拉丁美洲。歐洲的主要貿(mào)易伙伴將是北非和中東，而澳大利亞主要供應(yīng)亞洲。

新的貿(mào)易市場(chǎng)將使能源參與者發(fā)揮不同的作用。2050年，一些最大的潛在管道氫出口國(guó)是智利、北非和西班牙，它們幾乎占據(jù)了管道貿(mào)易市場(chǎng)的四分之三。像亞洲大國(guó)和美國(guó)這樣的主要消費(fèi)國(guó)能夠在國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)大部分氫。

其補(bǔ)充道，非洲、澳大利亞和北美占全球出口的四分之三。在進(jìn)口方面，日本、韓國(guó)和歐盟預(yù)計(jì)將通過(guò)進(jìn)口來(lái)滿足它們的大部分氫氣需求。

郝芬 譯自 油氣新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下:

A quarter of global hydrogen set for trading by 2050, says IRENA

To make the trade of hydrogen cost-effective, the costs of producing and trading green hydrogen must be lower than domestic production to offset higher transport cost, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) said in its new report series. 

Hydrogen trade can contribute to a more diversified and resilient energy system, allowing countries to decarbonise their economies to the benefit of producers and consumers.  

‘Global hydrogen trade to meet the 1.5°C climate goal’ finds that future hydrogen trade can be significant. Trade allows to tap into affordable hydrogen as scale of projects progresses and technology matures. One-quarter of the global green hydrogen demand could be satisfied with international trade through pipelines and ships, according to the reports. 

With the costs of renewables falling and the global hydrogen potential exceeding global energy demand 20-fold times, three-quarters of the global hydrogen would still be produced and used locally in 2050. 

This is a significant change from today’s oil market where the bulk is internationally traded, but it is similar to gas where one third is traded across borders. Hydrogen markets and trade routes are likely to be more diverse, regional and less lucrative than today’s oil and gas markets, sdtated Irena.

"Having access to abundant renewables will not be enough to win the hydrogen race, it’s also necessary to develop hydrogen trade," Irena’s Director-General Francesco La Camera said. 

“It is true that hydrogen trade can offer multiple opportunities for countries from decarbonising industry to diversifying supplies and improving energy security. Today’s energy importers can also become the exporters of the future,” he noted.

“But governments must make significant efforts to turn trade aspirations into reality”, La Camera added. “A mix of innovation, policy support and scaling up can bring the necessary cost reduction and create a global hydrogen market. Whether trade potentials can be realised will strongly depend on countries’ policies and investment priorities and the ability to decarbonise their own energy systems,” he added.

Irena’s World Energy Transitions Outlook sees hydrogen covering 12 per cent of global energy demand and cutting 10 per cent of CO2 emissions by 2050. 

Yet, hydrogen can only be a viable climate solution if the power needed to produce it comes in addition to the electrification of the energy system, placing an even greater uptake of renewable power at the heart of the transition. If costs come down, green hydrogen below $1 per kilogram (kg) would be available to meet ten times the world’s energy demand in 2050.

The new reports see half of the hydrogen in 2050 being traded through largely existing, repurposed gas pipelines drastically reducing the costs of transport. With costs of around USD 0.10/kg per 1 000 kilometres (km) in 2050, it would be the most cost-effective option for less than 3000 km distances. 

By contrast, transportation through new pipelines would cost twice as much. This is still less than shipping it in the form of green ammonia over 3 000–5 000 km, the other half of global hydrogen trade. Ammonia shipping will become the dominant form of intercontinental hydrogen trade, according to the analysis.

According to Irena, this future pipeline-enabled trade would be concentrated in two regional markets namely Europe with the vast majority of 85 per cent of the hydrogen trade and Latin America with 15 per cent. Europe’s main trading partners would be North Africa and the Middle East while Australia could mainly supply Asia.

New trade markets would lead to different roles for energy players. Some of the largest potential exporters of hydrogen by pipeline in 2050 are Chile, North Africa and Spain, representing almost three-quarters of the pipeline trade market. Major consumers like big country in Asia and USA are able to produce most of their hydrogen domestically.

Africa, Australia and North America, account for three-quarters of the global exports. On the importing side, Japan, South Korea and the European Union are expected to satisfy a large share of their hydrogen demand through imports, it added.