據(jù)美國(guó)彭博新聞社2022年7月18日?qǐng)?bào)道，如果歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)想要平衡全球石油供應(yīng)和需求，就需要在2023年以過(guò)去5年來(lái)最快的速度生產(chǎn)原油。產(chǎn)能限制表明，歐佩克可能會(huì)陷入困境。

國(guó)際能源署（IEA）、美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）和石油輸出國(guó)組織（歐佩克）的最新預(yù)測(cè)都顯示，盡管人們?cè)絹?lái)越擔(dān)心通脹加劇和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)疲軟，但2023年全球石油需求將再次強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)。對(duì)新產(chǎn)能的投資不足意味著歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)將需要增加石油產(chǎn)量以滿足需求。

這3家預(yù)測(cè)機(jī)構(gòu)都認(rèn)為，2023年全球石油需求將至少日增200萬(wàn)桶，自2020年初疫情以來(lái)首次超過(guò)2019年的水平。  

與IEA和EIA的同行相比，歐佩克的預(yù)測(cè)人士對(duì)全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)的看法要樂(lè)觀得多。結(jié)合對(duì)2022年和2023年全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)，歐佩克預(yù)計(jì)全球未來(lái)兩年將日增600多萬(wàn)桶石油需求。相比之下，IEA的數(shù)據(jù)為日增390萬(wàn)桶，EIA的數(shù)據(jù)為日增430萬(wàn)桶。 

歐佩克的最新報(bào)告認(rèn)為，無(wú)論是疫情、地緣軍事沖突，還是在通脹飆升的情況下全球金融緊縮，都沒(méi)有在很大程度上破壞經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體在“恢復(fù)其增長(zhǎng)潛力”。不過(guò)，報(bào)告也指出，圍繞其預(yù)測(cè)的不確定性“仍在下降”。  

歐佩克認(rèn)為，這一增長(zhǎng)將使全球石油平均日需求在2023年達(dá)到1.03億桶，而IEA和EIA的數(shù)據(jù)分別為1.013億桶和1.016億桶。

這些需求數(shù)據(jù)給歐佩克成員國(guó)帶來(lái)了越來(lái)越大的增產(chǎn)壓力，盡管它們中的大多數(shù)成員國(guó)已經(jīng)在盡可能多地生產(chǎn)石油了。

根據(jù)歐佩克和IEA公布的數(shù)據(jù)，結(jié)合需求和非歐佩克國(guó)家的供應(yīng)前景，到2023年，歐佩克13個(gè)成員國(guó)平均每天需要供應(yīng)超過(guò)3000萬(wàn)桶石油。EIA的預(yù)測(cè)是每天2940萬(wàn)桶。 

根據(jù)歐佩克自己的數(shù)據(jù)，這不是該組織的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄產(chǎn)量水平，但將是自2018年以來(lái)的最高水平。 更重要的是，根據(jù)彭博新聞社對(duì)歐佩克成員國(guó)可持續(xù)生產(chǎn)能力的評(píng)估，這將把該組織的備用日產(chǎn)能推至多年來(lái)的低點(diǎn)，約為200萬(wàn)桶。

上一次歐佩克現(xiàn)有成員國(guó)的石油日總產(chǎn)量超過(guò)3000萬(wàn)桶，其中5個(gè)國(guó)家的日總產(chǎn)量比6月份高出近275萬(wàn)桶。只有3個(gè)成員國(guó)——伊拉克、沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長(zhǎng)國(guó)——6月份的石油產(chǎn)量高于2018年的平均水平。

這不是自愿克制的結(jié)果。歐佩克的10個(gè)成員國(guó)受2020年與非歐佩克盟國(guó)達(dá)成生產(chǎn)協(xié)議條款的約束，其日產(chǎn)量比6月份允許的產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)低了100萬(wàn)桶以上。 

自2020年7月以來(lái)，歐佩克成員國(guó)的石油產(chǎn)量一直沒(méi)有達(dá)到批準(zhǔn)的水平。最初，這有助于平衡盟友的過(guò)度生產(chǎn)。更近一些時(shí)候，它反映出歐佩克無(wú)力在實(shí)現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)的同時(shí)提高產(chǎn)量。他們中的大多數(shù)已經(jīng)竭盡所能。

在油價(jià)超過(guò)每桶100美元的情況下，歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)無(wú)法提高產(chǎn)量，而全球?qū)ζ湓偷男枨罄^續(xù)飆升，這對(duì)未來(lái)來(lái)說(shuō)不是什么好兆頭。與6月相比，歐佩克明年平均每天需要增產(chǎn)約136萬(wàn)桶。

這將對(duì)歐佩克幾乎所有成員國(guó)的生產(chǎn)能力造成壓力。當(dāng)然，除非需求增長(zhǎng)最終并不像預(yù)測(cè)者所暗示的那樣強(qiáng)勁。 

李峻 編譯自 彭博新聞社

原文如下：

OPEC Will Struggle To Balance Supply And Demand In 2023

OPEC producers will need to pump crude at the fastest pace in five years in 2023 if they are to balance oil supply and demand. Capacity constraints suggest they may struggle.

The latest forecasts from the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries all show global oil demand rising strongly again in 2023, despite growing fears over mounting inflation and weakening economic growth. A lack of investment in new crude production capacity means that the OPEC group of producers will need to pump more to meet that demand.

All three forecasters see global oil demand increasing by at least 2 million barrels a day next year, taking it back above the 2019 level for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic struck in early 2020.

The forecasters at the producer group are much more bullish about oil demand than their counterparts in the IEA and EIA. Combining growth estimates for 2022 and 2023, they see an increase over the two years of more than 6 million barrels a day. That compares with 3.9 million barrels a day seen by the IEA and 4.3 million barrels a day from the EIA.

The latest report from OPEC assumes that neither the Covid pandemic, the war, nor global financial tightening amid soaring inflation undermines economic growth to a significant degree and that major economies “revert back towards their growth potentials.” It does note, though, that the uncertainties around its forecast “remain to the downside.”

OPEC sees that growth taking global oil demand to 103 million barrels a day on average in 2023. The IEA and EIA see the figure at 101.3 million barrels and 101.6 million barrels a day respectively.

Those demand numbers put growing pressure on the OPEC countries to pump more, even as most of them are already producing as much as they can.

Combining the demand and non-OPEC supply outlooks, the 13 members of OPEC will need to deliver more than 30 million barrels a day on average in 2023, according to both OPEC and the IEA. The EIA outlook puts the figure at 29.4 million barrels a day.

That’s not a record production level for the group, but it would be the highest since 2018, according to OPEC’s own figures. More importantly, it would push the group’s spare capacity to a multi-year low of about 2 million barrels a day, based on Bloomberg’s assessment of sustainable production capacities in OPEC countries.

The last time the current members of OPEC collectively pumped more than 30 million barrels a day, the combined output of five of them was almost 2.75 million barrels a day higher than it was in June. Just three members — Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates — pumped more last month than they did on average in 2018.

That’s not a result of voluntary restraint. The 10 members of OPEC bound by the terms of the production accord they struck in 2020 with a group of non-OPEC allies pumped over 1 million barrels a day less than their targets allowed last month.

OPEC members haven’t pumped as much as they were permitted since July 2020. Initially, that helped balance over-production by its allies. More recently, it has reflected an inability to boost output in line with rising targets. Most of them are already pumping as much as they can.

OPEC producers’ inability to raise production rates with oil prices above $100 a barrel and soaring demand for their crude doesn’t bode well for the future. The group will need to pump about 1.36 million barrels a day more on average next year than it did last month.

That’s going to put pressure on the production capacities of almost all of them. Unless, of course, demand growth doesn’t turn out to be anywhere near as strong as the forecasters are suggesting.