據(jù)鉆機地帶8月9日報道，惠譽解決方案國家風險與行業(yè)研究公司的一份新報告指出，由于年中業(yè)績指導仍然基本堅定，石油超級巨頭繼續(xù)抑制投資。

最近發(fā)送給鉆機地帶的報告顯示，總體而言，該集團到2022年將把每年的資本支出提高19%，而此前的指導增長幅度為17%。

惠譽解決方案的分析師在報告中指出，投資的緩慢增長來自殼牌，這是該集團中唯一的例外，自我們之前的報告以來，殼牌已經(jīng)將2022年的資本支出指導提高了17%。

分析師們在報告中補充道，2022年上半年，布倫特原油平均價格為每桶105美元，比2021年的年平均價格上漲了48%。然而，布倫特原油價格的大幅上漲，未能刺激各大石油巨頭增加投資。在下游方面，煉油利潤率幫助大幅提振了利潤，因為隨著因疫情封鎖后的經(jīng)濟繁榮，全球煉油產(chǎn)能大幅減少。

分析師們在報告中指出，創(chuàng)紀錄的收益應(yīng)該是增加長期投資的催化劑，但他們補充稱，目前來自大型企業(yè)的指導“幾乎沒有留下資本支出過剩的跡象”。

分析師們補充道，長期進行數(shù)十億美元投資的難度仍然受到能源轉(zhuǎn)型帶來的不確定性的困擾，大多數(shù)石油公司選擇謹慎行事，并在2022年的資本支出指導中保持平衡。

惠譽的分析師認為，投資增加不足是未來幾年供應(yīng)緊張的另一個有力指標。

分析師在報告中表示，在多年來投資低迷、產(chǎn)能大國進入全球貿(mào)易受到威脅后，市場仍然感到緊張，因為擔心供應(yīng)短缺會幫助維持價格前景的升高。并補充道，盡管鷹派央行的加息引發(fā)了對石油需求的短期擔憂，但供應(yīng)前景依然疲弱，為高油價提供了支撐。

惠譽解決方案的報告檢索了英國石油公司、雪佛龍、?？松梨?、殼牌和道達爾能源。在第二季度的財報中，bp公布的基本重置成本利潤為85億美元，而去年同期為28億美元；雪佛龍公布的凈利潤為116億美元，而去年同期為30億美元。

?？松梨诠拘?，預計2022年第二季度盈利179億美元，而2021年第二季度為46.9億美元，殼牌公司第二季度的調(diào)整后利潤為114億美元，而2021年同期調(diào)整后的利潤為55億美元。道達爾第二季的凈利潤為98億美元，是去年同期的2.8倍。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機地帶

原文如下:

Oil Supermajors Continue to Hold Back on Investment

Oil supermajors continue to hold back on investment as mid-year guidance remains mostly firm, a new report from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has noted.

Overall, the group will raise annual capital expenditure by 19 percent in 2022 versus earlier guidance growth of 17 percent, the report, which was sent to Rigzone recently, revealed.  

“The mild rise in investment is coming from Shell, the sole exception in the group, who have boosted 2022 capital expenditure guidance by 17 percent since our previous report,” analysts at Fitch Solutions stated in the report.

“Brent crude prices have averaged $105 per barrel for the first half of 2022, a gain of 48 percent over 2021’s annual average price. However, the sharp gains in Brent have failed to spur similar increased investment across the supermajors peer group,” the analysts added in the report.

“On the downstream side record refining margins have helped boost the profits significantly as the global contraction in refining capacity during pandemic supercharged fuel prices as post lockdown economies boomed,” the analysts continued.

In the report, the analysts noted that the record earnings should be the catalyst for increased long-term investment but added that the current guidance from the supermajors “l(fā)eaves little hint of capital expenditure excess”.

“The difficulty in making multi-billion-dollar investments over the long-term term continues to be dogged by uncertainty raised by the energy transition and most majors have chosen to exercise caution and remain balanced in guidance for capital expenditure in 2022,” the analysts added.

The lack of increased investment is another strong indicator for tight supply in the coming years, according to the Fitch Solutions analysts.

“After years of low investment and threats to the larger producer’s access to global trade, markets remain on edge in fear of supply shortages helping to keep the price outlook elevated,” the analysts stated in the report.

“Although higher interest rates from hawkish central banks have raised near-term concerns for oil demand the outlook for supply remains muted supporting the case for high oil prices,” the analysts added.

Fitch Solutions’ report examined BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies. In its second quarter results, BP reported an underlying replacement cost profit of $8.5 billion, compared to $2.8 billion during the same period last year, while Chevron reported a net income of $11.6 billion, compared to $3 billion during the same period last year.

Exxon Mobil Corporation announced estimated second-quarter 2022 earnings of $17.9 billion, compared to $4.69 billion in 2Q 2021, Shell posted adjusted earnings of $11.4 billion in 2Q, compared to adjusted earnings of $5.5 billion in 2Q 2021, and TotalEnergies reported adjusted net income of $9.8 billion in 2Q, which was 2.8 times higher than the same period last year.