據(jù)美國鉆井網(wǎng)站2022年9月16日報道，根據(jù)挪威著名能源研究和商業(yè)情報公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的最新研究，歐盟應對歐洲地區(qū)能源危機的緊急措施可能達不到其預期目標，至少在可再生能源方面是這樣。歐盟臨時限制超邊際電力生產(chǎn)商收入的提議，旨在攫取可再生能源生產(chǎn)商的暴利。在當前高電價時期，可再生能源生產(chǎn)商正受益于較低的生產(chǎn)成本。

然而，Rystad的最新研究顯示，在歐盟已安裝的可再生能源裝機容量中，約60%的收入來自于早在能源危機之前就簽訂的固定費率合同——價格通常低于當前的現(xiàn)貨價格。根據(jù)歐盟委員會的數(shù)據(jù)，通過實施低碳和燃煤發(fā)電的收入上限，估計可以獲得1166億美元的收入，但歐盟所描述的暴利只占可再生能源生產(chǎn)商的40%。 

Rystad預計，投資者和開發(fā)商將被嚇跑，這可能導致投資減少、項目推遲，以及對仍在開發(fā)的項目重新談判長期合同?？紤]到歐盟委員會為可再生能源制定了雄心勃勃的新目標，似乎也應該解決該行業(yè)面臨的實際問題：許可、拍賣價格和供應鏈支持——就像美國在最近的《通貨膨脹削減法案》中所做的那樣。

Rystad可再生能源分析師維克多·西涅斯表示：“雖然歐盟前所未有的干預是必要的，但只是暫時的，對中長期供應缺口問題毫無幫助?？稍偕茉葱袠I(yè)是歐洲生產(chǎn)廉價和安全電力的最佳行業(yè)，但這一政策降低了私營部門電力供應商的投資能力?？稍偕茉串a(chǎn)業(yè)不僅幫助歐洲保持電力供應，而且還為歐洲買單。如果可再生能源要在歐洲的電力結構中占據(jù)適當?shù)奈恢?，那么在不太遙遠的未來它們將需要相應的支持。

近幾個月來，歐洲電力價格達到了歷史最高水平，8月份的平均價格接近500美元/兆瓦時，創(chuàng)紀錄的日價格和周價格接近700美元/兆瓦時。 因此，無論電力公司出售電力的市場時間框架如何，歐盟及其成員國的目標是對可再生電力的利潤設定上限——提議為180歐元/兆瓦時（179.4美元/兆瓦時）。 這一上限將適用于風能、太陽能、生物質(zhì)能、核能、燃煤和一些水力發(fā)電廠。 超過價格上限的收入將被重新分配給成員國，用于幫助因能源賬單飆升而面臨財務壓力的家庭和企業(yè)。 

雖然收入上限將適用于所有可再生能源工廠，但只有約40%的可再生能源工廠從當前的危機中受益。自2000年以來，大多數(shù)歐洲國家的政府都制定了補貼政策，以鼓勵可再生能源的發(fā)展。這些方案被稱為“上網(wǎng)電價”（FiT）、“溢價補貼”（FiP）和“差價合同”（CfD），由于相對于平均電價，它們提供了利潤豐厚的承付電價，因此得到了早期可再生能源開發(fā)商的廣泛認可。這些補貼占該地區(qū)裝機容量的一半以上，支持分布在不同的計劃中。這些雙邊協(xié)議的價格平均低于目前的電價。自2015年以來，歐盟各國政府認為這些補貼對可再生能源生產(chǎn)商來說過于有利可圖，并逐漸用拍賣取代了這些補貼。歐洲的大多數(shù)拍賣都通過FiT、FiP和CfD等方案授予容量，但允許政府根據(jù)競標過程提供具有競爭力的電價。其他拍賣方案提供固定補貼，生產(chǎn)者必須在現(xiàn)貨市場上出售生產(chǎn)的電力。

Rystad估計，目前17%的裝機容量通過拍賣計劃獲得補貼，尤其是在德國、西班牙和法國。此外，2010年以后，電力購買協(xié)議（PPA）開始流行起來，這些協(xié)議是與企業(yè)、公用事業(yè)公司或政府簽訂的。PPA允許根據(jù)當時的市場條件商定固定的關稅，占歐盟目前可再生能源裝機容量的11%。最后，剩余產(chǎn)能（14%）直接從現(xiàn)貨市場獲得收入。這些發(fā)電廠可能是在21世紀初啟動的，補貼合同已到期的發(fā)電廠，或者是選擇了現(xiàn)貨市場并結合對沖策略的發(fā)電廠，或者是最近押注電價足夠高以實現(xiàn)盈利的發(fā)電廠。

在這些不同的機制中，兩種收入來源是理解當前形勢的關鍵：固定收入和市場收入。固定收入來自固定關稅合同，如FiT、CfD或PPA合同。總的來說，這些合同占歐盟可再生能源裝機總量的60%，約170吉瓦，主要分布在德國、法國和西班牙之間。運營這種產(chǎn)能的生產(chǎn)商無法從高電價中獲得暴利，因為它們有義務將高于協(xié)商價格的收入重新分配給協(xié)議中的交易對方。 

另一方面，當前的市場狀況已經(jīng)導致了一個重大轉(zhuǎn)變——在政府必須向可再生能源開發(fā)商支付高于市場的固定價格20年之后，政府現(xiàn)在開始盈利。在法國，政府在2000年至2015年期間為陸上風電提供了FiT補貼，平均電價為82.3美元/兆瓦時，持續(xù)時間為15年。根據(jù)上月的平均電價，法國政府的平均利潤接近500美元/兆瓦時。最近，法國能源監(jiān)管委員會（CRE）宣布，2022年和2023年的可再生能源收入預計將達到85億美元。這是這些收入首次出現(xiàn)正增長，這直接反映了當前的趨勢。

由于執(zhí)行管理市場的政策本身就很復雜，因此歐盟委員會決定不論收入的種類和市場的具體情況，都建議一個固定的上限，這一決定使人們對其影響產(chǎn)生了很大的混淆。在人們敦促可再生能源解決能源和氣候雙重危機之際，這一政策卻向該行業(yè)發(fā)出了負面信號。 

李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

EU Revenue Cap Could Hinder European Renewable Energy Ambitions

The European Union’s emergency measures to tackle the region’s energy crisis may fall short of their intended goals, at least where renewable energy ambitions are concerned, according to Rystad Energy research. The EU’s proposal to temporarily cap the revenues of inframarginal electricity producers is aimed at capturing the windfall profits of renewable energy producers, which are benefitting from low production costs during this episode of high electricity prices. 

However, research by Rystad Energy reveals that about 60% of the total installed renewable energy capacity in the EU derives its revenues from fixed-rate contracts agreed well before the energy crisis – with prices generally below current spot prices.?According to the EU Commission, an estimated $116.6 billion would likely be collected by implementing a revenue cap on low carbon and coal power generation, but the windfall profits described by the EU account for only 40% of renewable energy producers.

Rystad expects investors and developers to be scared off, which could lead to lower investments, delays to projects, and the renegotiation of long-term contracts for projects still under development. Given the Commission’s ambitious new targets for renewables, it would seem sensible to also tackle the actual issues facing the sector: permitting, auction prices, and supply chain support – as the USA did with the recent Inflation Reduction Act.  

“The EU’s unprecedented intervention, while necessary, is temporary and does nothing for the medium to long term supply gap issue. The renewable industry is Europe’s best shot at producing affordable and secure power, but this policy reduces the private sector power providers ability to invest. The renewable power industry is not only helping to keep the lights on in Europe, but also picking up the bill too. If renewables are to take their proper place in Europe’s power mix, they will need support in turn in the not-too-distant future,” Victor Signes, analyst for renewables at Rystad Energy, said.

In recent months, power prices have reached record-high levels, averaging at almost $500/MWh in August, and record daily and weekly prices at nearly $700/MWh. Consequently, the EU and its member countries are aiming to implement a cap on renewables profits – proposed at €180/MWh ($179.4/MWh) regardless of the market timeframe in which the company sells the electricity. This cap would apply to wind, solar, biomass, nuclear, lignite and some hydroelectric plants. Revenues above the price cap will be redirected to member states and used to help households and businesses facing financial stress due to soaring energy bills.

While the revenue cap would apply to all renewable energy plants, only about 40% are benefiting from the current crisis. Since 2000, most European governments have put in place subsidy policies to incentivize renewable energy development. These schemes, known as feed-in-tariff (FiT), feed-in-premium (FiP), and contract-for-differences (CfD), have been widely subscribed to by early renewable energy developers, as they offered lucrative offtake tariffs relative to average electricity prices. These subsidies account for more than half of the region’s installed capacity, with support distributed across the different schemes. The prices of these bilateral agreements are on average lower than current electricity prices. Since 2015, governments considered these subsidies too lucrative for renewable producers and gradually replaced them with auctions. Most auctions in Europe award capacities with schemes like FiT, FiP, and CfD but allow governments to offer these competitive tariffs based on a bidding process. Other auction schemes provide fixed subsidies and producers must sell the produced power on the spot market.

Rystad Energy estimates that 17% of the total capacity installed today is subsidized through auction schemes, notably in Germany, Spain, and France. In addition, power purchase agreement (PPAs) gained popularity after 2010, and were either concluded with companies, utilities, or governments. PPAs allow for fixed tariffs negotiated according to market conditions at the time and represent 11% of total renewable energy capacity installed today in the EU. Finally, the remaining capacity (14%) receives revenues directly from the spot market. These may be plants that started up in the early 2000s and for which the subsidy contract has since expired or have opted for the spot market combined with a hedging strategy or, more recently, that have bet on a sufficiently high power price to reach profitability.

Among these different mechanisms, two types of revenue streams are key to understanding the current situation: fixed revenues and market-based revenues. Fixed revenues come from fixed tariff contracts like the FiT, CfD, or PPA contracts. In total, these contracts represent 60% of the total installed renewables capacity in the EU or around 170 GW, mainly distributed between Germany, France, and Spain. Producers operating this capacity cannot make windfall profits on high electricity prices, as they are obliged to redistribute revenues above the negotiated price to the counterparty in the agreement.

On the other hand, current market conditions have led to a significant shift – after 20 years of governments having to pay a fixed above-market price to renewable energy developers, governments are now making a profit. In France, the government offered FiT subsidies for onshore wind between 2000 to 2015, with an average tariff of $82.3/MWh and a duration of 15 years. based on last month's average electricity price, the French government made an average profit of close to $500/MWh. More recently, the French Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) announced that renewable energy revenues for 2022 and 2023 are expected to total $8.5 billion for the state budget. This is the first time that these revenues are positive, which directly reflects the current trend.

As the implementation of policies to manage the market is inherently complex, the Commission decision to propose a constant cap regardless of the types of revenues and market specificities has led to great confusion over its impacts. At a time when renewables are being urged to address the dual energy and climate crisis, this policy sends out a negative signal to the sector.