據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2022年9月13日?qǐng)?bào)道，石油輸出國(guó)組織（歐佩克）周二在一份預(yù)測(cè)報(bào)告中表示，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)今年將保持3.1%的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)，明年將繼續(xù)保持3.1%的增長(zhǎng)。這表明，盡管市場(chǎng)擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，但歐佩克仍預(yù)計(jì)全球石油需求將健康增長(zhǎng)。 

在今天發(fā)布的9月石油市場(chǎng)月度報(bào)告（MOMR）中，歐佩克沒(méi)有改變其對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)，并對(duì)今年和明年的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)表示樂(lè)觀。  

歐佩克預(yù)計(jì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)今明兩年將增長(zhǎng)3.1%，盡管其下調(diào)了對(duì)歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)，但歐佩克仍預(yù)計(jì)今年將增長(zhǎng)3.1%，2023年歐元區(qū)將增長(zhǎng)1.7%。這與分析人士和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家最近的預(yù)測(cè)相反。分析人士和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)，由于能源價(jià)格飆升對(duì)通貨膨脹、工業(yè)和消費(fèi)者信心造成壓力，歐元區(qū)和幾個(gè)歐盟成員國(guó)最早將在今年陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。 

歐佩克在周二的MOMR中表示：“印度和歐元區(qū)等經(jīng)濟(jì)體在今年上半年表現(xiàn)出強(qiáng)勁的增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力，很好地彌補(bǔ)了經(jīng)濟(jì)大國(guó)相對(duì)（可能是暫時(shí)的）較弱的表現(xiàn)?！?/p>

展望2023年，歐佩克指出：“盡管存在明顯的下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)也存在上行潛力。歐盟財(cái)政措施將在年底前支持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，并可能在2023年繼續(xù)保持穩(wěn)定的增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭?！?/p>

歐佩克表示，由于預(yù)期的強(qiáng)勁經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，石油需求將繼續(xù)上升，特別是在旅游和運(yùn)輸行業(yè)復(fù)蘇的推動(dòng)下。該預(yù)計(jì)將導(dǎo)致全球石油日需求量在今明兩年分別強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)310萬(wàn)桶和270萬(wàn)桶，超過(guò)疫情暴發(fā)前的水平，明年達(dá)到日均1.027億桶。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

OPEC Upbeat On Global Economic Growth

Global economic growth is set to remain robust at 3.1% this year and another 3.1% next year, OPEC said on Tuesday in a forecast suggesting that the cartel expects healthy oil demand growth despite market fears of recession. 

In its September Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) published today, OPEC made no changes in its economic growth estimates and sounded an upbeat note about the trend of the global economy for 2022 and 2023. 

The cartel expects the global economy to grow by 3.1% both this year and next, and although it revised down its estimate of the Eurozone economy, OPEC still sees 3.1% growth in 2022 and 1.7% increase in the euro area in 2023. That’s contrary to recent forecasts from analysts and economists who expect the Eurozone and several EU member states to be plunged into recessions as early as this year due to soaring energy prices weighing on inflation, industries, and consumer sentiment.  

“Economies like India and the Euro-zone showed a strong growth dynamic in 1H22, compensating very well for the relatively — and likely temporary — weaker performance of the big countries,” OPEC said in its MOMR on Tuesday.  

Looking at 2023, the cartel noted that “Despite the obvious downside risks, there is also upside potential to the global economic growth forecast. Fiscal measures in the EU support growth towards the end of the year and lead to the potential continuation of a stable dynamic in 2023.” 

As a result of the expected robust economic growth, oil demand will continue to rise, especially driven by the recovery in travel and transportation, OPEC said. This is forecast to lead to robust overall growth in oil demand of 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and 2.7 million bpd in 2023, surpassing the pre-COVID-19 levels, to stand at an average 102.7 million bpd next year.